Escalating Risks In Space: Potential For Nuclear Conflict

Amid worsening state relations and a crumbling global arms control and disarmament architecture, the risk of potential nuclear weapon use is growing. This danger is exacerbated by ongoing regional conflicts and developments in outer space, a domain that has become increasingly complex and weaponised.

Despite the strategic significance of outer space, particularly in nuclear deterrence practices, the interaction between space trends and escalation dynamics remains poorly understood.

A paper published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shed light on escalation risks at the intersection of outer space, nuclear weapons, and related systems, referred to as the ‘space–nuclear nexus.’

Focusing on China, Russia and the United States—the primary actors in contemporary strategic competition—the paper examines how these nations integrate space systems into their nuclear deterrence practices. While Russia and the USA possess the world's largest nuclear arsenals, China is reportedly expanding its arsenal through extensive modernisation.

All three countries rely on space systems for missile early warning, command, control and communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and navigation. However, the degree of integration and strategic significance of these space systems vary among the nations. Each also possesses counter-space capabilities, posing threats to space systems through disruption, damage or destruction.

The potential for confrontation among China, Russia and the USA in outer space is highly concerning due to the risk of escalation to nuclear weapons use. Conflicts in the space domain could involve several scenarios: targeting or perceived threats to strategically valued space systems, offensive use or perceived imminent use of space systems in conventional attacks, antisatellite tests triggering conventional responses, or the expansion of terrestrial conflicts to include attacks against space systems.

Whether these scenarios might trigger nuclear escalation depends on various factors, including the strategic significance of the space system, the nature of the attack, the ability to attribute the attack and the broader context of the unfolding scenario.

The paper explores these risk drivers and considers escalation dynamics at the space–nuclear nexus. It analyses the threat perceptions of China, Russia and the USA regarding their nuclear weapons and strategically significant space systems, focusing on their expressed nuclear escalation thresholds.

Specific activities at the space–nuclear nexus that could cross red lines and drive potential nuclear retaliation are also examined, along with other variables contributing to escalation dynamics, such as strategic ambiguities, integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in space systems and misperceptions regarding commercial actors' roles in the space domain.