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Moscow’s war spending to reach Rs 20 lakh crore this year including the weapons and equipment of nearly Rs 5 lakh crore, according to some estimates.
Russia’s expenditure on the war is not available to the public, but according to a US think tank, its overall defence spending commitment for 2024 is set to be over Rs 9 lakh crore while in 2023, the war has cost the Kremlin over Rs 8 lakh crore.
On the other hand, Kyiv warns Vladimir Putin’s soldiers are marching along the “entire front line” and pledges to spend roughly 20 per cent of its GDP this year to oppose Russian attacks.
Since 2022, the West has provided around Rs 10 lakh crore in support for Kyiv. For 2024, the EU has pledged an extra Rs 4.5 lakh crore in aid.
As per the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, Moscow has also lost 480,000 military personnel till 15 May. In addition, Russia has taken tremendous equipment losses, including the severe degradation of its Black Sea fleet with 20 vessels sunk. In total, Russia has lost around 8,800 armoured vehicles since it invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. But, as striking as those numbers are, experts estimate Russia has enough resources to continue the war at the same intensity for the next two to three years.
RAND Corporation, a US-based think tank also claims that the war is not going to end soon because Russia is capable of fighting this war for another few years or until and unless Ukraine surrenders.
The Russia-Ukraine war started in February 2022 and has now crossed 800 days. At the initial stage or before the war, it meant that Ukraine would lose the war in days and weeks but because of the continuous supply of weapons from European partners and the US, Kyiv is fighting and vows not to surrender against Moscow.
Currently, Ukraine is suffering from a shortage of weapons and that is capitalised on by Russia by intensifying the attack. Russia has captured Mariupol, Donetsk, Luhansk and Donbas regions.
Despite the significant loss and US-led sanctions, Russia can keep the economy on track because of the export of oil and gas. Recently President Vladimir Putin said that despite the challenges Russia's economy grew by 3.6 per cent in 2023, fueled by spending on war and weapons manufacturing. Also, Moscow succeeded in keeping inflation in control and that didn't impact the lives of ordinary people.
The Russian economy also benefitted from the return of its people from other countries who fled when the war started. According to media reports, almost 40 to 60 per cent of 1.1 million Russians have returned to the nation.
The United States Institute of Peace said in a report citing military experts at the United Kingdom’s Royal United Services Institute that, while Russia is likely capable of continuing offensive action through the rest of 2024, it will begin to face significant limitations in the production of weapons and munitions in 2025-2026. Even with the import of ammunition from North Korea and other countries, they assess Russia will still have a deficit in 2025.
Thus, Russia would struggle to achieve its offensive aims and make further gains in 2025 and beyond if “Ukraine’s partners will provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024.”
The Russia-Ukraine Endgame
As per the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy, Ukraine’s military objective and only acceptable war outcome remains the expulsion of all Russian forces from its 1991 territory, including Crimea. However, Ukraine could not achieve this objective, although operations continue.
Therefore, a ceasefire determined by the point where the armies of either side become exhausted seems to be the most plausible outcome of the war. What is politically unacceptable today by both Ukraine and Russia may become altered by military reality on the ground as time passes. How the conflict will freeze may be defined by military realities rather than political agreement.
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