India is preparing to relaunch its INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier after a major refit, a critical step toward fulfilling its plan to deploy two carrier battle groups in order to counter China's growing assertiveness in the region.
The Vikramaditya, a former Soviet carrier acquired from Russia, is expected to be launched soon and will join India's first domestically built carrier, the INS Vikrant, which was launched in September, in undergoing outfitting and sea trials, with both expected to be fully operational later this year.
For more than a decade, China's People's Liberation Army Navy has been expanding and modernising, and it is now the world's largest. It launched it's first domestically designed and built aircraft carrier, the country's third overall, in June as part of a programme to increase its range and power and become more of a global “blue water” force.
At the same time, China's People's Liberation Army has made significant investments in ballistic and cruise missile technology, and the US Defence Department claims that in the “near term,” it will be able to conduct “long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarine and surface combatants.”
As Beijing strengthens its naval presence around Taiwan and asserts its claims in the South China Sea, the United States, Britain, and other allies have responded with regular naval exercises in the region and transits through the Taiwan Strait as part of their policy of a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”
China has not yet sailed an aircraft carrier into the Indian Ocean, but this is expected to happen in the coming years. It already has other vessels operating in the region on a regular basis and has established its first overseas base in Djibouti, a country in the Horn of Africa with easy access to the Indian Ocean.
China raised eyebrows in New Delhi in August when it docked what it called a “spy ship” in Sri Lanka's Hambantota port off India's southern coast, a facility that China leased for 99 years in 2017.
India, like China, possesses nuclear weapons and is developing nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines as part of its “nuclear triad” of air, sea and land-based platforms. It currently has two such submarines and plans to build two more, in addition to nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Its fleet also includes ten destroyers, twelve frigates and twenty corvettes.
In 2020, India and China clashed on their land border, killing 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. The skirmish turned into a long standoff in the rugged mountainous terrain, with tens of thousands of military personnel on each side.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed Vikrant's launch as a victory in his “Make in India” campaign to make India more self-sufficient in defence.
The government increased defence spending by less than 2 per cent in its proposed 2023-24 budget, raising concerns about major new carrier investments. Even if it is built, a third carrier would take years to complete.
India is expected to decide soon on the purchase of 26 maritime strike fighters, either the French Rafale-M or the American FA-18. The Indian air force already has a version of Dassault Aviation's Rafale that allows for easier maintenance, whereas Boeing's FA-18 can carry more missiles.
The Vikramaditya will continue to operate India's existing Russian-made MiG-29K fighters.
India has been attempting to reduce its reliance on Russian equipment, which currently accounts for roughly 60 per cent of its inventory, with the war in Ukraine raising concerns about their effectiveness and the availability of spare parts. The US and its allies have been pitching themselves as alternatives to New Delhi, and they are increasing their cooperation with the key regional player as they intensify their own focus on the Indo-Pacific.
Experts say that even with domestic production and acquisition diversification, India could be dependent on Russian supplies and spares for the next 20 years.